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Coronavirus – Sarigiannis: Schools and shops being open may bring 1700 cases in March.
Demosthenes Sarigiannis finds that in just a few days a 30% increase in cases is recorded.
We are rapidly increasing the number of coronavirus cases in our country in the next two months, which was more or less expected given the opening of primary schools and retail in January, but now the planned opening of Secondary Education from February. This was stated to ethnos.gr by the professor of the Polytechnic School, head of the Laboratory of Environmental Engineering and head of the Research Center for Exhibition and Health of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Demosthenes Sarigiannis.
As he characteristically states, while we were at 500 cases per day on average weekly until January 23, from that point onwards, there was an increase and it is expected in the last week of the month to reach 670 cases per day on average weekly. In fact, on the last day of January, the number of cases may reach 800. This means that within a few days of the reopening of primary schools and retail, the increase in cases reaches 30%.
At the same time, given that primary schools and retail will remain open and Secondary Education will reopen from February, Mr. Sarigiannis estimates, based on the mathematical models that follow, that at the end of next month the cases will be around 950 -1,000 per day on a weekly average.
1,700 cases a day in March
The situation will be even more difficult in March, given the further spread of the mutant and most contagious strain in our country, since at the end of this month the cases are expected to range to 1,650-1,700 per day on a weekly average. In fact, if no measures are taken to break the transmission chains of the mutated coronavirus strain from the beginning, in April and May it is expected to be a loss, in terms of the number of cases.
At the moment, the period we are going through, regarding the coronavirus, can be considered corresponding to that of the second ten days of last October. It is a given that we would reach the 2,000 daily cases at the end of January, if we opened Primary Schools, Gymnasiums, Lyceums and retail together. We did very well and did not do it, as a result of which we saved a significant number of cases “, says Mr. Sarigiannis to ethnos.gr.
Concern from the mutant strain.
The professor estimates that the number of patients with the mutated strain will increase from February, however, the largest increase is expected in March and if the necessary measures are not taken, the situation will be very difficult in April and May. In this case, the professor estimates that the big problem will then be located in the Intensive Care Units, which will be significantly pressed, since a large part of the beds are already occupied.
“We do not have to reach 2,000 cases a day to take action, as we did in October and November. Today the ICUs are 52% occupied in Thessaloniki and 61% in Athens, while in October there were much fewer patients in them. The goal must be to break the transmissions of the mutant strain at the beginning. This will be done with more tests and with an enhanced case sequencing network, ie to read the virus genome in the patients, so that we know, whether it is the old or the mutated strain, that the positive ones are quarantined and done correctly. the tracking. To cite as an example the absolutely correct decision of the Prime Minister for a new closure of stores on January 2. He got it without then having data on the increase of cases and so he was now able to actually open the retail trade. “Nothing should be done with automation but with vigilance and braking, where necessary”, Mr. Sarigiannis emphasizes.
Regarding the possibility of closing any activity again in the next period, the professor of AUTh claims that the detection and sequencing process described above will show it. “We have to change the way we work. The sequencing should be done in other structures of the country and not only in Athens. There is this possibility. If this is done, it may not be possible to avoid an increase in cases, but we will know if something should be closed and when. Also, this way we can break the virus transmission chains at the beginning. We must not see and do, we must catch up. We must close where there is a problem. “No, I open – I close and we see”, notes Mr. Sarigiannis.
Source:- https://www.ethnos.gr
